Digital Outcomes & Zero-sum Games in the Japanese Pharma Market

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Can the world's most indebted, cronyistic, deflationary -- and fragile ! -- OECD country (Japan) be an asset to your biotech company ? -- or save itself from sclerotic metastatic pernicious end-stage economic stagnation ?

The short answer ? -- probably not, so recalibrate your expectations.

More than likely, the Japanese market will not "viagrafy" your company's sales or biz dev goals for the next 3 - 5 years.  Why ? -- because in Japan, past results are indeed a guarantee of future performance !

Or non-performance !

Just as Japanese stock-market investors have on average lost 80 % of their investment for the past 21++ years (since December 1989), your company too should expect good business results in Japan to take time.  A loooooooooooooong looooooooong Time.

Doubtful ?  Although 12+ years old, this short New York Times article below reifies (makes concrete) everything above and still says it all:


"Japan's Tale of Two Pills:  Viagra and Birth Control"
By Sheryl Wu-Dunn

Published: April 27, 1999

http://www.nytimes.com/1999/04/27/science/japan-s-tale-of-two-pills-viagra-and-birth-control.html

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In short, it took 40 (forty) years for the birth-control pill to be accepted / approved in Japan, but it took less than 6 months for Viagra's approval by the Japanese MHW (Ministry of Health & Welfare).  Excuse me, come again ?  Only 6 months ?  Versus 40 years ?  Yes !

In sum, unless your biotech/pharma product or service improves the sex lives of Japanese men, don't expect fast business results in Japan !

Moreover, when there is another major earthquake in the Tokyo region -- the now overdue Daini Kanto Dai-jishin -- which is the ineluctable tectonic "Manifest Destiny" of Japan -- then business outcomes for foreign companies in Japan will be Zero for many many years. 

Yes, Zero.  Or negative, sadly.

Thus, yes, you should address the Japanese market in your business plans, but the mathematical or statistical Expected Value (EV) in your spreadsheet should be ......... Zero.  Lamentably.

That's what a conservative planner or observer would say.

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POSTED 21 August 2011 by:

David Palella
Founder
BIOSCIENCE VENTURES Inc.
“Global Business Development & Licensing since 1991”

San Diego, California
cell: 619-787-5767
email:  dpalella@gmail.com
http://www.linkedin.com/in/davidpalella

web site:  http://www.BSVpartners.com

blog: http://biobizdev.blogspot.com

& Group Founder:

Japan Biotech / Biopharma Partnering Forum
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Asia Business & Finance Roundup
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& Co-founder:

Stem Cells & Regenerative Medicine
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